Why Apple Won't Make a Foldable iPhone Until They're Perfect [2025]

Why Apple Won't Make a Foldable iPhone Until They're Perfect [2025]

Every year, the rumor mill spins up again. Whispers of a foldable iPhone. Leaks suggesting a 2025 launch. Patent filings pointing toward flexible displays. And every year, Apple stays silent, watching competitors stumble through the same growing pains.

Here's the thing: Apple isn't being stubborn. The company is being strategic. And frankly, I think we might never see a foldable iPhone at all, or at least not for another five to seven years minimum.

This isn't pessimism. It's pattern recognition.

The Apple Perfectionism Problem

Apple has a well-documented history of entering categories late and then dominating them. The iPad. The Apple Watch. AirPods. In each case, the market existed, competitors were already there, and Apple let them take the hits. The crashes. The recalls. The lawsuits.

Then Apple showed up with a polished, refined version that made everyone else's product feel like a prototype.

But foldables are different. They're not mature. Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold line has been shipping since 2019, and we're now in the sixth generation. That's six years of iteration, and users still complain about crease visibility, durability concerns, and the software experience feeling like an afterthought.

The Z Fold 6 is genuinely better than the original. Lighter. Less creasy. Better cameras. More durable hinge. But "better than before" isn't the same as "solved."

That crease you see when you fold it? Still there. The gap between the screen and frame when closed? Still a dust trap. The price point pushing $2,000 after a few years of speculation? Still a concern.

What "Perfect" Actually Means for Apple

When Apple talks about waiting until something is perfect, they don't mean flawless. They mean three specific things:

First, the technology has to be reliable enough to not destroy Apple's reputation. If an iPhone's screen breaks, it's a $300 repair. If a foldable iPhone's hinge fails after eight months, that's a hardware defect that undermines the entire product line. Apple doesn't ship products with known failure modes. Samsung's fold devices have gotten better, but "better" isn't "reliable enough for Apple's standards."

The hinge technology in current foldables represents approximately two million fold cycles before degradation becomes visible. That sounds like a lot until you do the math: two folds per day, every single day, gets you to visible wear in under three years. For a phone that costs $1,900, that's unacceptable to Apple's engineering standards.

Second, the software experience has to justify the hardware complexity. Right now, foldable software is adapted, not designed. Android tablets have existed for over a decade, and tablet software still feels like an afterthought. Google just launched Android 15 with better tablet optimizations, but that's the point: it's still playing catch-up.

Apple would need to build iOS from the ground up for a folding screen. Not just letting apps scale. Not just adding gesture controls. Actually rethinking how iOS works when your screen can fold in half. That's not a software update. That's a redesign.

Third, the consumer demand has to be proven at volume, not hype. IDC research estimated that foldable phones reached approximately 9 million units shipped in 2023, representing less than 0.5% of global smartphone shipments. That's not a market. That's a niche.

Apple builds products for hundreds of millions of people. They don't enter categories based on early adopter enthusiasm. They enter when the market is ready to absorb 50+ million units per year and the product can command their typical

The Display Problem: Still Not Solved

Let's talk about the actual technology, because this is where Apple's perfectionism becomes practical.

Foldable displays have fundamental physics problems that current engineering can only partially address. The crease exists because you're folding a glass-based display. Even with plastic alternatives like Samsung's Gorilla Glass Armor, the substrate has to bend, and bending creates a visible line.

Some companies claim they've eliminated the crease. Samsung's marketing suggests this with each generation. But look at an actual device in sunlight, and the crease is still there. It's less visible. It's less tactile. But it's not gone.

For a company that obsesses over bezel sizes and glass curvature, shipping a product with a permanent visible crease down the middle of the screen is philosophically unacceptable.

Beyond the crease, there's the durability of flexible OLED panels themselves. Current foldable screens have a rated lifespan of approximately 10,000 fold cycles before brightness degrades by 30%. That's roughly three to five years of normal use. Smartphone displays regularly outlast that without degradation.

Apple doesn't ship phones with known obsolescence built in. The iPhone 11, released in 2019, still runs iOS 18 smoothly. A foldable iPhone would need displays that maintain 95%+ brightness after 50,000 cycles minimum. That's five to ten years of heavy usage.

We're not there yet.

Samsung's Six-Year Head Start Proves the Problem

Here's what's wild: Samsung has been shipping foldables for six years. They've invested billions in manufacturing infrastructure. They've solved supply chain challenges. They've optimized production costs. And the Galaxy Z Fold 6 still costs $1,899 at launch.

Apple could theoretically launch a foldable tomorrow using Samsung's proven manufacturing process and flexible OLED panels. But doing so would mean shipping a product that costs $2,000, has a visible crease, might degrade in five years, has software that's basically an oversized phone OS, and serves an unclear use case for most consumers.

That's the opposite of how Apple operates.

Look at the iPhone's history. When Apple finally added a second camera to the iPhone 7 Plus in 2016, it was because the technology was mature enough, the use cases were validated, and the price was acceptable. They didn't jump in at the first opportunity. They waited for the market to prove it was viable.

Same with Face ID. The original iPhone X shipped with face unlock in 2017, but Apple spent years developing it before release. Meanwhile, Samsung and OnePlus shipped face unlock technology years earlier. Apple's version was so much better that it became the standard everyone copied.

The Use Case Problem

Here's something nobody talks about: we don't actually need foldables.

I tested a Galaxy Z Fold 6 for two weeks last year. It's undeniably cool. Unfolding it feels premium. The screen is massive when opened. But here's what I actually used it for: watching videos, reading articles, and occasionally using two apps side by side.

All of those things work better on a regular 6.5-inch phone. The foldable's advantage is mainly novelty.

Apple would need to identify a genuine use case that only a foldable enables. Not "it's bigger when you need it." Not "two app windows at once." Something that changes how people fundamentally use their phones.

Think about how the iPad revolutionized tablets. Apple didn't just make a bigger iPhone. They built entirely new applications and workflows around the larger canvas: split-screen multitasking, stylus support with pressure sensitivity, trackpad integration, external monitor support.

They created reasons to buy an iPad beyond "I want more screen."

Foldable iPhones don't have that yet. And they won't until software and hardware both mature to the point where Apple can build genuine new workflows, not just adaptations of existing ones.

The Software Strategy Question

Apple has always controlled the entire software-hardware relationship. When they design hardware, they design the OS simultaneously. The M1 chip and Big Sur. The dynamic island and iOS 16. Face ID and the entire Face ID ecosystem of apps and security features.

A foldable iPhone would require a fundamental rethink of iOS. Not cosmetic changes. Not new features. A genuine architectural redesign.

Current iOS assumes a single, fixed-size screen. Multitasking on iPhone is limited specifically because the screen isn't big enough. If the screen could fold, suddenly you have 6.2 inches closed and 9+ inches open. Should apps automatically scale? Should they force a new layout? Should iPadOS-style Split View become the default?

These aren't small questions. They're the difference between shipping a product that feels native and one that feels like it's running software designed for a different form factor.

Android manufacturers have been grappling with this for six years. Samsung's solution is basically "scale everything and let developers figure it out." It works, but it doesn't feel considered. It feels like a workaround.

Apple would need to ship iOS-in-a-fold that felt like it was designed from the ground up for folding. That level of engineering is years away.

Price Point Reality

Let's be direct: foldables are expensive right now, and they won't get cheap soon.

The Galaxy Z Fold 6 costs $1,899 at launch. Six years into the category. After billions in R&D amortized. With manufacturing at scale.

Apple's typical pricing for a flagship is

For a foldable iPhone to exist, it would probably start at

And Apple doesn't ship products to a niche market, especially not at premium prices. They ship products that the mass market wants, at prices that justify the premium through genuine innovation.

What Apple Is Actually Doing

While everyone waits for Apple to release a foldable, the company is quietly improving phone screen technology in other ways.

The dynamic island replaced the notch. ProMotion 120 Hz displays became standard on Pro models. Always-On displays let phones show meaningful information without opening them. The titanium frames on iPhone 15 Pro are durable enough that durability stops being a concern.

These aren't flashy innovations. They're the kinds of improvements that make phones feel premium without requiring fundamental hardware changes.

Meanwhile, Apple's research labs are almost certainly working on flexible displays. The company files patents constantly on OLED technology, hinge designs, and folding mechanisms. But patents don't mean products. Most patents never become products. Patents are Apple thinking out loud.

The Competitive Advantage of Waiting

Here's the strategic advantage nobody mentions: by waiting, Apple lets competitors solve the hard problems while Apple solves the hard problem of solving the hard problems.

Samsung fixed the crease visibility issue (mostly). Samsung improved hinge reliability (significantly). Samsung optimized manufacturing costs (somewhat). Samsung proved there's a market (barely).

When Apple finally enters, they'll take all of that accumulated knowledge, improve it by 20-30%, ship it at a similar price, and watch everyone else's products become immediately irrelevant because Apple's version is better.

It's the pattern that's worked for every category Apple has ever entered in the smartphone era.

The only difference is timing. And Apple's timing suggests we're still years away.

Market Adoption Reality Check

Foldable phones represent less than 1% of global smartphone shipments. That's not a rounding error. That's a fundamental statement about market viability.

By comparison, when the iPhone launched, it was immediately clear that touchscreen phones were the future. Within five years, every major manufacturer was building touchscreen phones. The category grew because it solved a real problem in a better way.

Foldables haven't done that yet. They solve "how do I have a bigger screen sometimes" but that's not actually a problem most people have.

The iPhone 16 Plus gives you a 6.7-inch screen that's thinner than a folded Galaxy Z Fold. It's lighter. It's cheaper. It doesn't have a crease. The battery lasts longer.

For 95% of users, it's better.

Apple understands this. They'll wait until foldables solve for something real, not something theoretical.

The Honest Prediction

If a foldable iPhone arrives, it's probably 2027 at the earliest, and more likely 2028-2029. That's assuming Samsung's technology trajectory accelerates and crease visibility becomes genuinely invisible by then.

More realistically? Apple might never make a foldable iPhone. The company might decide that bigger phones and bigger iPads serve the "I need more screen" use case better, and that foldables are an evolutionary dead-end.

That would be very Apple. Skip the category. Make it irrelevant through better solutions in adjacent categories.

The foldable phone might become like 3D TVs: an interesting technology that never became mainstream because it didn't solve a real problem better than existing solutions.

Understanding the Foldable Display Technology

The core challenge with foldable phones is physics. Glass doesn't want to bend. When you force it to, you're fighting against the fundamental properties of the material.

Current foldable displays use flexible OLED technology, where the organic light-emitting diodes are printed on a plastic substrate instead of glass. This works, but it introduces new problems: plastic is softer than glass, more easily scratched, less thermally stable, and degrades faster under UV exposure.

Samsung's latest approach uses Gorilla Glass Armor, a glass variant that's supposedly more flexible. But glass that's more flexible is also glass that's less durable. The physics is unforgiving: material properties that make bending possible make hardness impossible.

The crease exists because the substrate has to bend into a specific radius. Tighter radius means more visible crease. Looser radius means thicker, heavier phone. There's no winning solution, only trade-offs.

For Apple to ship a foldable, they'd need to solve this with novel materials science. And that takes time.

The Hinge Problem

The hinge is where most foldable complaints originate. It's also where most improvement potential exists.

Early foldables had stiff hinges that felt like they might break. Middle-generation foldables have better hinges that feel smoother but create visible gaps. Current-generation foldables have near-perfect feel, but the gap still exists as a dust trap.

Samsung's latest hinge design uses a "water drop" mechanism that minimizes the gap. It's genuinely better. But "minimized" isn't "eliminated."

The engineering challenge is real: you need the hinge to be smooth enough to feel premium, stiff enough to hold position without being creepy, sealed enough to prevent dust, and durable enough to survive 50,000+ cycles without degradation.

This is where Apple would likely make a significant improvement. The company has expertise in mechanism design from the Apple Watch crown, the iPad stand, the MacBook hinge, and the Apple Pencil cap. If anyone could design a near-perfect foldable hinge, it's Apple's mechanical engineers.

But designing it is one thing. Manufacturing it at scale without cost becoming prohibitive is another.

The Durability Test

One metric separates mature technology from immature technology: durability expectations.

For traditional smartphones, users expect 4-5 years of reliable operation. That means screens that don't degrade, batteries that still hold 80% capacity, and physical durability sufficient for everyday use.

Current foldable displays are rated to approximately 10,000 fold cycles before brightness degrades 30%. That's roughly three years of two folds per day. After that, the screen gets noticeably dimmer.

Apple's iPhone displays maintain brightness for the life of the phone, typically 5+ years with normal use. To ship a foldable, Apple would need flexible OLED that meets iPhone durability standards.

That technology doesn't exist yet. It's being researched. Companies like Corning and Samsung Display are working on it. But working on it and shipping it are different timelines.

Once flexible OLED reaches 50,000+ cycle durability while maintaining brightness, you'll have solved a major category concern. That's probably two to four years away.

Battery Complications

Making a phone with a folding screen also means making a battery that can flex. Current approaches stack two smaller batteries on either side of the hinge.

That works, but it adds complexity, weight, and cost. More importantly, it reduces total battery capacity for the volume consumed. A foldable phone's battery is always smaller than a traditional phone's battery in the same total size envelope.

This is why foldables have worse battery life than their traditional phone equivalents, even when the foldable is physically larger.

Apple's power management expertise is legendary. The company consistently ships phones with better battery life than competitors in the same form factor. But even Apple can't break physics. A smaller battery means less energy storage, regardless of how well you manage it.

For a foldable iPhone to match iPhone battery life, Apple would either need to make it thicker when folded, accept worse battery life, or accept higher cost from larger batteries.

None of these are acceptable options.

Screen-to-Body Ratio Trade-offs

Foldables promise the best of both worlds: compact closed, expansive open. In practice, there are compromises.

When closed, the outer screen is narrower than a traditional phone's screen (to keep the folded phone thin). When open, the display has a visible crease. So you're getting neither full-width screen when closed nor seamless screen when open.

Apple's design philosophy demands optimizing for the primary use case. If foldables aren't genuinely better for normal use, Apple won't ship them.

The Galaxy Z Fold solves this by essentially turning into a small tablet when opened. That's useful for some tasks. But for 80% of phone usage—messaging, calling, social media, email—it's overkill.

Apple would need to identify whether there's a primary use case where the foldable design is substantially better. Until then, the foldable remains a specialist device, not a flagship.

Estimated data shows gradual improvements in foldable smartphone technology, but significant challenges remain. Apple may wait until market readiness scores are higher before entering.

The Software Challenge That Rivals Hardware

Imagine redesigning iOS. Not cosmetically. Not with new features. From the ground up.

That's what a foldable iPhone would require.

Current iOS is optimized for a single, fixed-size display between 5.8 and 6.7 inches. Every app, every gesture, every layout is designed around that assumption.

When the screen can fold, that assumption breaks. You have two distinct states: closed (small screen) and open (large screen). Apps need to adapt to both. But more importantly, users need to understand the paradigm.

On iPad, Apple solved this with Split View and slide-over windows. Apps can resize. You can have two apps side by side. But this required years of development and still doesn't feel as native as iPhone's single-app paradigm.

A foldable iPhone would need to be more sophisticated than iPad. The transition between states happens multiple times per session. Apps need to reflow instantly. Layouts need to be context-aware. The OS needs to understand whether you want to continue your current task or switch to a tablet-style multitasking mode.

iOS 18 is already complex. Adding foldable support would require a fundamental redesign of how the OS approaches layout, multitasking, and app architecture.

It's not impossible. Apple is capable of this. But it's a multi-year project that requires hardware and software to ship simultaneously in a mature state.

Gesture and Interaction Redesign

Every interaction paradigm on iPhone assumes a single point of use: holding the phone and tapping/swiping the screen.

With a foldable, you have new possibilities: you can use one half while folding the other back. You can use both halves for two different tasks. You can prop it open on a desk with both halves visible.

Each of these creates new interaction opportunities, but also new confusion. Apple would need to design clear, intuitive gestures that feel native to the foldable form factor, not borrowed from iPad or Android.

This is the kind of design work Apple is legendary for. But it takes time. Years of prototyping, testing, iteration.

Developer Compatibility

When Apple shipped the dynamic island, every app needed to be updated to account for the new camera placement. It was annoying for developers but ultimately manageable.

A foldable iPhone would be more complex. Apps would need to support multiple screen sizes dynamically. Layouts designed for a 6.2-inch screen need to work on a 9.2-inch screen without looking broken.

Apple could force this by requiring app updates. But that creates friction and discourages developers from optimizing for the new form factor.

Alternatively, Apple could implement automatic scaling, like Android does. But that usually results in apps that feel broken or non-native.

There's no perfect solution. Apple would need to find the least-bad approach and commit to it.

The Samsung Z Fold series has shown consistent improvements in weight, crease visibility, durability, and hinge mechanism over six generations. However, these advancements have yet to make foldables a clearly superior choice. Estimated data.

Comparing Foldable Maturity: Six Years and Still Counting

Samsung started shipping foldable phones in 2019. That's six years ago. By now, the category should feel mature, right?

It doesn't.

Each generation brings incremental improvements: lighter weight, thinner profile, less visible crease, better hinge feel, faster refresh rates, better cameras. But the fundamental problems persist.

The crease is still there. The durability concerns remain. The use case is still unclear. The price is still premium.

This is what Apple is waiting for. Not just the technology to be proven possible, but proven necessary.

When the iPad launched, it was immediately obvious why you'd want a tablet over a laptop or phone. Larger screen for reading and browsing, but lighter than a laptop, with touch-optimized interface.

Foldables haven't reached that level of obvious usefulness. They're interesting. They're technically impressive. But they're not obviously better at anything most people care about.

Specific Generation Improvements

Look at the Z Fold's progression:

Z Fold (2019): First-generation foldable. Heavy, expensive, the crease was terrible, software was janky. But it proved the concept worked.

Z Fold 2 (2020): Better crease visibility, improved hinge, refined software. But still expensive and still heavy.

Z Fold 3 (2021): Added S Pen support, improved durability rating, introduced under-display camera. Getting closer to feeling like a real product.

Z Fold 4 (2022): Lighter, thinner, better chipset, better cameras. Felt more refined.

Z Fold 5 (2023): Even thinner, better hinge mechanism, improved outer screen ratio.

Z Fold 6 (2024): Lighter still, better AI features, improved hardware and software integration.

Every generation is demonstrably better. But "better" is a low bar when you're starting from rough. We're still not at "obviously superior" territory.

Apple would want to enter not at generation six, but at generation ten—when the market has solved the fundamental problems and proven demand.

The Path to Maturity

For foldables to be mature enough for Apple, we need:

1. Invisible or near-invisible crease: Visible progress here, but still not invisible.
2. 50,000+ fold cycle durability: Current displays max out around 10,000.
3. Efficient manufacturing: Costs need to drop so a foldable iPhone can be priced under $1,500.
4. Clear consumer demand: Foldables need to represent 10%+ of smartphone sales, not 1%.
5. Stable software paradigm: Android/iOS foldable software needs to feel considered, not adapted.

We're maybe 30% of the way there.

Given Samsung's trajectory, assuming two-year generations, we're looking at 2028-2030 before foldables hit maturity.

Then Apple needs 1-2 years to design, prototype, and ship their version.

So 2029-2031 for a foldable iPhone, if it happens at all.

Why Competitors Are Struggling While Apple Watches

Samsung, Huawei, Motorola, and Google are all shipping foldables. But none of them feel like category-defining products. They feel like experiments that happened to ship.

Samsung's approach is the most committed. They're investing heavily, improving every generation, and accepting losses to capture market share. But even their commitment hasn't solved the fundamental problems.

Google's Pixel Fold, launched in 2023, is a solid foldable. But it's also proof that Google doesn't have a clear vision for what foldables should be. It's half smartphone, half tablet, and genuinely good at neither.

Motorola's Razr foldable is interesting because it flips the paradigm: the fold is vertical instead of horizontal, creating a small closed screen. It's different. But different isn't better if the utility isn't clear.

The problem is that none of these companies have solved the fundamental question: what do foldables do better than the alternative?

A Galaxy Z Fold vs. an iPhone 16 Plus + iPad Air. The foldable is one device. The iPhone-iPad combo is two devices. For most users, the iPhone-iPad combo is better for functionality, price, and user experience.

Samsung's answer is "it's all one device." But is that actually better? Or is it just different?

Apple isn't going to enter this category until the answer is unambiguously "better."

The Pixel Fold Problem

Google's Pixel Fold is genuinely a good device. The hinge feels smooth. The crease is manageable. The cameras are excellent. The price is aggressive at $1,799.

But try to use it as a phone, and it feels like a tablet that's too small. Try to use it as a tablet, and it feels like two phones you're trying to hold together.

This is the fundamental problem every foldable manufacturer faces: you can't optimize for both form factors simultaneously. You have to choose. Samsung chose "be better as a tablet." Google chose "be a more flexible phone." Neither is obviously right.

Apple would need a different approach. Not better at being a tablet or a phone, but genuinely good at both, plus the foldability adds something neither can do alone.

That doesn't exist yet.

The Price Problem

Foldables are expensive because manufacturing is expensive. Samsung's Fold costs $1,899. That's double a flagship iPhone.

For that price, you're getting... an interesting screen arrangement. Not better performance. Not better cameras. Not better software. Just different.

Apple typically charges premium prices for genuine advantages: better performance, better design, better integration between hardware and software.

A foldable iPhone at $1,999 would be hard to justify unless it did something dramatically better than a regular iPhone.

Right now, it doesn't.

Maybe in 2029-2030, when foldables are genuinely mature, when the use cases are proven, when the software is considered, then Apple can justify the price.

Not yet.

The foldable smartphone market is projected to grow from 1% in 2025 to 10% by 2032, with significant advancements expected post-2027. Estimated data.

The Real Reason Apple Is Waiting

Here's the honest truth: Apple doesn't need foldables.

The company is selling 230+ million iPhones per year. The business is healthy. Growth is stable. There's no market pressure forcing Apple to innovate in foldables.

This is actually Apple's competitive advantage. Without the pressure to chase trends, Apple can wait until the technology and market are both ready.

Companies like Samsung are incentivized to ship foldables because their core smartphone business is declining. They need new categories to grow. Foldables are that bet.

But Apple's core business is strong enough that they can let competitors absorb the losses while foldables mature.

When foldables are inevitable, Apple will enter and immediately dominate. When they're still experimental, Apple stays away.

This strategy has worked for decades.

The Pattern Holds

Touchscreen phones: Android shipped first, but iPhone perfected the category.

Tablets: Lots of competitors, Apple iPad dominated.

Smartwatch: Multiple competitors, Apple Watch became the standard.

Wireless earbuds: Existing products, AirPods became category-defining.

The pattern is consistent: Apple doesn't lead. Apple refines and dominates.

Foldables will follow the same pattern. If they ever become mainstream.

The big question is "if."

Apple might decide that foldables solve a problem that's better solved differently: a larger regular phone (iPhone 16 Plus at 6.7 inches), combined with a tablet for bigger-screen tasks (iPad).

That combination already exists. It works well. It's cheaper than a foldable. It has better software support. It has better battery life.

Why would Apple obsolete this with a foldable?

They might not.

What Apple's Research Tells Us

Apple files patents constantly. Looking at foldable-related patents, you can see the company is definitely exploring the technology.

But patents aren't products. Most patents never ship. Patents are ideas that might be useful someday, or might just be defensive (filed to prevent competitors from patenting the same thing).

The patents show Apple thinking about:

• Flexible display designs
• Hinge mechanisms
• Thermal management in foldables
• Software for multiple screen states
• Gesture controls for folds

This is exactly what you'd expect: Apple researching foldables as a category, not ready to commit, but not ignoring them either.

Timeline Hints

When you look at Apple's patent filing dates and technological progress in the filings, you can estimate maturity.

Early foldable patents (2019-2021) were about basic concepts. Recent patents (2023-2024) are more specific about manufacturing and durability.

If Apple were planning a 2025-2026 launch, we'd see more concrete patents about specific hinge designs, specific display specifications, and specific manufacturing processes.

We don't. The patents are still exploratory.

That suggests a 2027-2030 timeline at minimum.

Samsung's current foldable displays endure 10,000 folds, while Apple requires at least 50,000 for their standards. Estimated data.

The Market Readiness Question

Here's what needs to happen for Apple to enter the foldable market:

1. Market size needs to grow to 5%+ of smartphone sales. Right now it's under 1%. For Apple to invest, foldables need to represent a meaningful market opportunity.

2. Technology maturity needs to reach 90%+ of flagship standards. Durability, display quality, hinge reliability, and software all need to feel native and reliable.

3. Clear use case needs to be proven. Not "it's cool to have a big screen sometimes." Something that changes how people use phones.

4. Manufacturing needs to be efficient enough for Apple's typical margins. A foldable iPhone at

   $1,599 with Apple's typical 38$
   1,000. We're not there yet.

How long until all four conditions are met? Probably 2028-2030 at the earliest.

Apple's Alternative Strategy

While Apple waits for foldables to mature, they're improving traditional phones in other ways.

The dynamic island improved the notch design without requiring new form factors. ProMotion 120 Hz displays improved smoothness without foldable complexity. Always-On displays improved utility without hardware changes.

These improvements compound. An iPhone 16 today is genuinely better than an iPhone 14, without needing foldable innovation.

Meanwhile, the iPad continues to improve. iPad Air now has the M1 chip. iPad Pro has the M4. These are legitimate computers, not just big phones.

The iPad-iPhone combination arguably provides more flexibility than a foldable, with better battery life, lower cost, and more mature software.

Apple might conclude that this combination serves every use case foldables are trying to address.

If so, a foldable iPhone never ships. Apple just declares that the best way to have flexibility is multiple devices, not one device that tries to do everything.

That would be very Apple.

Estimated data shows that while foldables like Samsung Galaxy Z Fold and Google Pixel Fold offer unique features, they lag behind the iPhone 16 Plus + iPad Air combo in terms of overall functionality, price competitiveness, and user experience.

Historical Precedent: Products Apple Never Made

Apple has famously passed on product categories:

Stylus on iPhone: For years, people asked for stylus support on phones. Apple said no. The Apple Pencil exists, but only for iPad.

Always-On displays: iPhones didn't get always-on displays until iPhone 14 Pro, and Apple limited it to Pro models for years. They were waiting for the technology to be efficient enough.

30W+ charging: iPhone had 5W charging forever while competitors shipped 65W+ fast charging. Apple waited until they had a solution they believed in, then shipped 20W standard, 30W+ proprietary. Still slower than competitors, but optimal for their design goals.

USB-C: Apple stubbornly kept Lightning longer than anyone thought reasonable. But they waited until USB-C was mature, then switched completely. Now USB-C is standard across all devices.

The pattern: Apple waits until the technology is right, the market is ready, and Apple has a way to do it better. Then they ship.

Foldables are still in the "technology not right, market not ready" phase. So Apple waits.

The Honest Prediction (Again, More Specific)

My best estimate based on technology trajectories, market adoption rates, and Apple's historical patterns:

2025-2027: Foldables remain niche. Samsung continues iterating. Other manufacturers chip away. Technology continues improving incrementally. Apple watches. No announcement.

2027-2029: Foldable market reaches 3-5% of smartphone sales. Samsung's latest generation has nearly-invisible creases and significantly improved durability. Google and others are shipping decent foldables. Software approaches become more standardized. Apple starts committing to foldable iPhone development seriously.

2029-2031: Foldable iPhone enters development in earnest. Multiple prototypes being tested internally. Software redesigns beginning. Supply chain being set up. Market expectations building.

2031-2032: First foldable iPhone ships. Likely as a "Pro" model, starting at

Alternative: Apple never ships a foldable iPhone, concluding that the form factor doesn't offer genuine advantages over iPhone-iPad combinations.

That second outcome has maybe a 30-40% probability.

Estimated data suggests that by 2028-2030, the foldable smartphone market will meet Apple's criteria for entry, with market size reaching over 5%, technology maturity at 90% of flagship standards, and manufacturing costs aligning with Apple's margin requirements.

FAQ

Why doesn't Apple just use Samsung's foldable displays?

Apple could, technically. Samsung sells displays to competitors. But Samsung's current flexible OLED panels don't meet Apple's durability standards. The screens degrade after 10,000 fold cycles; Apple needs 50,000+. Additionally, Apple's perfectionism means they'd want to design proprietary displays optimized for their specific implementation, not adapt existing technology.

What would make Apple build a foldable iPhone today?

Three things would need to change: First, a breakthrough in foldable display technology that eliminates the crease completely while maintaining durability standards. Second, software solutions for multitasking and adaptive layouts that feel native, not adapted. Third, proven market demand at scale showing that 50+ million people per year genuinely want foldables. We're probably 3-4 years away from all three being true.

Is a foldable iPhone inevitable?

Not necessarily. Apple might decide that combining an iPhone with an iPad provides superior flexibility, better battery life, lower cost, and more mature software than a single foldable device. If Apple reaches that conclusion, they might skip foldables entirely and instead optimize the iPhone-iPad ecosystem. Given Apple's track record, this is plausible.

Why do Samsung's foldables have visible creases if they've shipped six generations?

The crease is inherent to how current foldable displays work. You're bending a substrate that naturally wants to be flat. Even with flexible OLED technology and careful engineering, the bend creates a visible line. Samsung has made it less visible with each generation, but eliminating it completely would require breakthrough material science that doesn't exist yet. The crease might be a permanent feature of this form factor, which is why Apple might reject the category.

What about rumors of a foldable iPhone in 2025?

Every year brings rumors of a foldable iPhone announcement. These rumors are typically based on supply chain gossip, analyst wishful thinking, or misinterpreted patents. Apple doesn't leak product timelines through the rumor mill. When Apple ships a foldable—if they ship one—it will be a surprise, announced formally at a keynote, with full design explanation. The absence of formal signals from Apple indicates no imminent launch.

Could Apple use a vertical fold instead of horizontal?

Possibly. A vertical fold (like the original Motorola Razr) would create a taller phone when closed, smaller when open. This might fit better with how people hold phones. It would also differentiate Apple's approach from Samsung's horizontal fold. If Apple ships a foldable, a vertical fold is more likely than a horizontal one because it better matches Apple's design philosophy.

What would the price be?

Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold costs

Would a foldable iPhone replace the Plus model?

Unlikely. The iPhone Plus (currently the 16 Plus) at 6.7 inches with a 10+ hour battery life serves the "I want a big screen" market for

What apps would be dramatically different on a foldable iPhone?

That's the question nobody can answer yet. That's also why Apple isn't shipping a foldable. Until there's a clear set of apps or use cases that are genuinely better on a foldable than on a regular phone or iPad, the form factor remains experimental. Apple doesn't ship experimental products.

Final Thoughts

Apple's strategy with foldables is the opposite of the tech industry's default approach. The industry wants novelty now. Apple wants maturity later.

This creates a cultural mismatch. Tech journalists and analysts demand to know when Apple will enter the foldable category. Shareholders ask the same question. Competitors launch increasingly refined foldables to pressure Apple into responding.

But Apple's response is calculated patience. Watch competitors. Learn from their mistakes. Wait until the market is ready. Then enter and dominate.

It's worked for decades. It's working for foldables.

The real question isn't "when will Apple launch a foldable iPhone?" The real question is "will Apple ever launch a foldable iPhone if the alternative—iPhone plus iPad—remains superior?"

That's a strategic question, not a timeline question. And Apple's answer might be silence, not innovation.

Key Takeaways

• Apple's perfectionism strategy means foldables aren't arriving until display technology reaches iPhone durability standards (50,000+ fold cycles vs. current 10,000-14,000)
• Foldables remain under 1% of smartphone sales after six years, suggesting the form factor hasn't achieved proven market necessity
• Samsung's Z Fold line demonstrates that crease elimination and hinge perfection remain unsolved problems despite six generations of iteration
• Apple's iPhone-Plus and iPad combination arguably serves large-screen needs better than foldables, potentially making the form factor unnecessary
• Software optimization for folding screens requires fundamental iOS redesign, not just adaptation, explaining Apple's reluctance to rush into the category
• Historical precedent shows Apple typically enters categories 3-5 years after competitors establish viability, then dominates through superior execution
• Foldable iPhone, if it launches at all, likely arrives 2028-2030 at minimum, priced at
  $1,700-$
  2,000, competing directly with iPad-iPhone combinations
• Manufacturing costs remain prohibitively high for foldables, preventing the price compression needed for mass market adoption

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