PC Prices Set to Soar in 2026: RAM Shortage & AI Demand Explained

You've probably heard the saying: buy now, regret later. Well, for PCs and smartphones, that's about to become literal. If you've been thinking about upgrading your machine, here's the uncomfortable truth—prices are about to jump significantly, and waiting until mid-2026 could cost you thousands.

The semiconductor world is experiencing a crisis that nobody really saw coming in this form. AI data centers are vacuuming up memory chips faster than manufacturers can produce them, leaving consumer-grade RAM in short supply. This isn't just a temporary blip. Industry analysts are warning that memory shortages will persist well into 2027, potentially driving PC prices up by 15-20% from the second half of 2026 onward.

But here's where it gets interesting: not everyone will feel the pain equally. Budget phone makers? They're in trouble. Apple? Not so much. And the PC market? It's about to get complicated with competing pressures from Windows deprecation, AI PC mandates, and raw material costs colliding all at once.

Let's break down what's actually happening, why it matters to you, and most importantly, what you should do about it.

TL; DR

• DRAM/NAND shortage persists through 2027: AI data centers are consuming memory chips faster than manufacturers can produce them, creating a structural supply problem that won't resolve quickly.
• PC prices jumping 15-20% in H2 2026: Major vendors including Lenovo, Dell, HP, Acer, and Asus have publicly warned of significant price increases starting in the second half of 2026.
• Budget phones hit hardest, iPhones less vulnerable: Android OEMs with low margins will pass costs to consumers, while Apple's higher profit margins provide cushion against immediate price hikes.
• Flagship RAM upgrades delayed: Even premium smartphones will see specifications stagnate or roll backward as manufacturers preserve margins.
• Buy now if you can afford it: The window to upgrade before the price surge is closing fast, making current-generation devices better value than waiting.

Estimated data suggests budget brands like ASUS and Acer will see the highest price increases due to the RAM shortage, while Apple may maintain prices with slight spec reductions.

Why RAM Shortage? The AI Data Center Explosion

The core problem isn't complicated on the surface: demand for memory chips has exploded, but supply hasn't kept pace. But the reason for this demand explosion is the real story.

Artificial intelligence infrastructure requires enormous amounts of memory. Training and running large language models, image generation systems, and inference engines all consume memory at unprecedented scales. A single modern GPU cluster serving AI workloads can require gigabytes of high-speed DRAM just to keep data flowing fast enough to feed the compute cores.

This is where manufacturers face their crucial decision: do they allocate their capacity to cheap consumer DRAM that brings in modest margins, or do they prioritize high-margin data center memory that brings in 40-50% higher profit per chip? The answer, unsurprisingly, is data center memory.

Memory manufacturers like SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron have all signaled that they're shifting production capacity toward AI data center applications. This isn't malice or stupidity—it's basic economics. A data center DRAM chip might sell for

The semiconductor industry isn't lacking production capability. Building new fabs (semiconductor manufacturing plants) takes years and billions in capital. What they're doing instead is rebalancing existing production lines to chase the highest margins. It's a rational business decision that creates a cascade of consequences for everyone waiting for a laptop upgrade.

Industry research suggests this reallocation could persist into 2027, meaning we're not talking about a six-month disruption. We're talking about a structural shift in how memory gets allocated across the entire tech ecosystem for potentially two years or longer.

The Math: How Much Will Your PC Actually Cost More?

Let's get specific about the money, because abstracted percentages don't mean much when you're shopping for a new device.

Memory typically represents 10-20% of total manufacturing costs for smartphones, and slightly higher (around 15-25%) for PCs. Seems like a small number, right? Here's the problem: when RAM prices double or triple, that 10-20% slice of costs suddenly becomes 20-40%.

Imagine a

For PCs, let's do a concrete scenario:

If memory costs rise 50% and represent 20% of total PC costs, that's an 10% baseline increase. But vendors warn of 15-20% jumps, suggesting other cost pressures are stacking on top.

For a

Apple and Samsung have higher profit margins (around 30%), providing them flexibility to absorb cost increases compared to Budget Android OEMs and PC manufacturers with lower margins (around 7.5% and 10% respectively).

Who Gets Hit Hardest? The Margin Calculus

Here's where it gets fascinating from a business perspective: different manufacturers have different levels of cushion against these cost increases.

Budget Android OEMs (Xiaomi, Oppo, Vivo, One Plus) operate on thin 5-10% margins. When memory costs rise, they can't absorb the hit. They must either raise prices (shrinking addressable market) or cut specs (making their products less competitive). Most choose to raise prices, which means you'll see a

Apple and Samsung operate on 25-35% profit margins. This gives them significant flexibility. They can absorb moderate cost increases without raising prices, maintain competitive positioning, and protect market share. Apple might keep iPhone prices flat while quietly thinning specs slightly (less storage, older generation modem, etc.). Most consumers won't notice. Samsung has similar leeway.

What does this mean practically? If you're considering buying a budget Android phone in late 2025, prices might be 8-12% cheaper than they'll be six months later. If you're considering an iPhone 16 Pro Max, pricing might stay relatively stable through 2026.

PC manufacturers operate on 5-15% margins depending on the segment. Gaming laptop makers are on the higher end; ultraportable manufacturers on the lower end. So PC pricing is especially sensitive to component cost swings.

Windows 10 Deprecation: The Hidden Cost Driver

Here's something that doesn't get enough attention: Windows 10 is reaching end of support in October 2025, and Microsoft isn't making it easy for budget PC makers.

Windows 11 requires TPM 2.0 (a security chip), UEFI firmware, and most importantly, 8GB of RAM minimum. That might not sound like much, but PC makers have been shipping Windows 10 machines with 4GB RAM for years. These are profitable machines with low material costs.

Windows 11 compatibility requires upgraded hardware across the board. That 4GB budget laptop now needs 8GB just to not feel like a slideshow. 8GB machines need 16GB to stay competitive. This cascades up the entire price ladder, adding memory costs to every device.

Microsoft's push is explicitly designed to drive hardware refresh cycles and increase minimum specs. And it's working. But from a consumer perspective, it's another cost pressure stacking on top of raw material shortages.

The AI PC Mandate: Copilot+ Requirements

Microsoft and major PC vendors aren't just dealing with the fallout from cost pressures—they're actively creating new cost pressures through AI PC requirements.

Copilot+ PCs mandate at least 16GB of unified memory. That's double what the previous generation needed. High-end systems often come with 32GB or more. This isn't optional from a marketing perspective—vendors want to participate in the "AI PC" category because that's where growth is expected.

What does this mean? The baseline specs for a "premium" PC have jumped from 8GB to 16GB. The premium for jumping from 8GB to 16GB used to be negligible (

This creates a strange market dynamic: budget PCs stay cheap but underpowered. Premium PCs jump significantly more in price. The middle market gets squeezed from both sides.

The PC market is projected to contract by up to 8.9% by 2026, with significant price increases peaking at 20% in H2 2026. Estimated data.

The Smartphone Spec Rollback: Doing More With Less

One fascinating consequence of the memory shortage is that flagship smartphones might actually get worse specs in 2026, not better.

Historically, each new smartphone generation adds more RAM. The Samsung Galaxy S24 shipped with 12GB standard. The Galaxy S25 usually jumps to 16GB. But in a shortage environment, manufacturers might maintain 12GB rather than upgrade to 16GB, protecting margins while costs rise.

Or they might preserve high-end specs but cut the mid-range. The flagship gets 16GB while the "less expensive" variant drops to 8GB to manage costs.

This is bizarre from a consumer experience perspective. You're buying a newer, more advanced processor and better camera, but the same amount of RAM as the previous generation. Performance gains disappear because the bottleneck is memory bandwidth, not compute power.

For manufacturers, it's a calculated trade-off: customers care about processor and camera specs in reviews. They don't always notice if RAM stayed flat. This lets vendors avoid headline price increases while still protecting margins.

Timeline: When Does This Actually Hit?

This isn't an abstract future concern. The impacts are already visible in late 2024-early 2025.

Some retailers are implementing rationing policies: individual purchase limits on RAM, SSDs, and storage drives to prevent hoarding. This signals that supply chains are genuinely stressed. When retailers implement purchase limits, it's usually because shortage is imminent or ongoing.

The IDC research cited by analysts specifically warns of a "moderate scenario" (5.2% PC market contraction) and a "pessimistic scenario" (8.9% PC market contraction) for 2026. The base case is somewhere between stagnation and decline as price increases push consumers away from upgrades.

The timeline goes like this:

• Q1-Q2 2026: Memory supply remains tight. Prices start climbing but haven't peaked. Early adopters buying new PCs face 5-10% premiums.
• H2 2026: Major vendors implement the 15-20% price increases they've publicly warned about. This becomes widespread across the industry.
• 2027: Supply constraints begin easing as new fab capacity comes online, but prices stay elevated because manufacturers have reset margin expectations.

The window to buy at current pricing doesn't last forever. If you need a new PC, the analysis is increasingly clear: waiting until mid-2026 costs real money.

Impact on Different Device Categories

Gaming Laptops

Gaming laptops are getting hit from multiple angles. They require 16-32GB of RAM standard, which means they face direct memory cost pressures. High-end gaming laptops might jump from

But here's the interesting part: gaming laptop makers like Alienware, ASUS ROG, and MSI have loyal customer bases willing to accept modest price increases. Gaming peripherals have inflation-proofed enthusiasts for years. A

The real pressure comes from mid-range gaming laptops in the

Ultrabooks and Portables

Ultrabooks operate on extremely thin margins because they compete heavily on price within their category. A 15-20% cost increase on a

Ultrabook makers (Dell XPS, ASUS Zen Book, Lenovo Think Pad X1) have warned of significant price increases. These are the machines most likely to see sticker shock in H2 2026.

Workstations and Creators' Machines

Creatives and professionals buying workstations are less price-sensitive in the moment, but they're still affected. A

Interestingly, this might actually accelerate adoption of pre-built cloud workstations or remote development environments where hardware costs are distributed across time.

Budget PCs

Budget systems in the

Don't be surprised if budget PC sales contract in H2 2026 while prices increase—the classic supply-shock dynamic where volumes fall and prices rise simultaneously.

Enterprises purchasing 500 laptops annually could face an additional

What About Used and Refurbished Machines?

Here's an unconventional angle: the secondary market might become surprisingly attractive during the 2026 price spike.

Used machines don't face the same supply constraints as new inventory. You can buy a 2023 or 2024 model from corporate refreshes or returns at 20-30% discounts from original pricing. With new pricing jumping 15-20%, the value proposition for used machines improves dramatically.

Refurbished systems from Dell, HP, and Lenovo programs typically come with warranties, quality guarantees, and proven reliability. In a market where new machines jump 15-20% in price, last-year's flagship refurbished system at 25% discount becomes genuinely attractive.

If you're strategically thinking about timing: late 2025 and early 2026 might be optimal times for buying used or refurbished machines, precisely because new pricing hasn't spiked yet but supply is shifting toward fulfilling new orders.

Enterprise and Business Impact

Businesses buying hundreds or thousands of machines annually face a different calculus than individual consumers.

For enterprises with annual hardware refresh cycles, the 15-20% price increase translates to substantial budget impacts. A company buying 500 laptops annually at an average cost of

This might push some enterprises to:

• Extend current hardware lifecycles by 6-12 months, deferring upgrades to 2027 when supply normalizes
• Negotiate volume discounts more aggressively with vendors, potentially securing lower increases than list prices
• Shift to alternative form factors, like tablets or Chromebooks for specific use cases where they work
• Invest in mobile device management infrastructure to extend the lifespan and security of existing machines

Vendors are aware of this dynamic. They'll likely offer enterprise pricing tiers that absorb some price increases to maintain volume. But small businesses without negotiating leverage will face the full impact.

Global Regional Variations

Pricing isn't uniform worldwide. Different regions face different tariffs, shipping costs, and local demand dynamics.

United States: American consumers benefit from direct relationships between vendors and local distribution. Price increases will likely hit at 15-20% as warned.

Europe: EU regulations around right-to-repair and warranties add costs that aren't factored into US pricing. European consumers might see slightly higher premiums, potentially 18-22%.

Asia-Pacific: Manufacturing happens in APAC regions, so some markets benefit from lower transportation costs. Singapore, Hong Kong, and Australia might see 12-18% increases.

Emerging Markets: India, Brazil, and Southeast Asia often see delayed price impacts as inventory flows through distribution channels. Prices might stay flatter in 2026 but spike in 2027.

The timing of when to buy isn't just about knowing increases are coming—it's about knowing when they hit your specific region and retailer.

Estimated data suggests buying PCs in late 2025 for optimal pricing, while iPhone prices remain stable through 2026. Android flagship prices are best in late 2025, with budget Androids seeing a price increase by mid-2026.

Can Manufacturers Just Build More Capacity?

You might think: why don't they just build more fabs? The answer involves billions in capital, years of construction, and fundamental physics.

Semiconductor manufacturing is extraordinarily capital-intensive. Building a modern fab costs

Memory manufacturers have announced fab expansions. SK Hynix is building capacity. Samsung is allocating investment. Micron is doing the same. But these factories won't meaningfully impact supply until 2027-2028.

So the constraint is real: between now and 2027, memory supply is structurally constrained because it takes years to increase capacity. There's no quick fix. The shortage isn't temporary—it's structural until new production comes online.

This is why analysts warn of shortage "well into 2027." They're not being pessimistic; they're being realistic about fab timelines.

What Should Individual Consumers Actually Do?

Let's cut through the noise and give practical guidance.

If you need a PC now or in the next 3 months: Buy. Current pricing is better than future pricing. Don't try to time the market perfectly. Use what you need to use.

If you can wait until late 2025 but not later: Buy in October or November 2025. This is the sweet spot. Prices haven't spiked yet, but new inventory is available before the holiday rush completely clears stock. This is the last window at "normal" pricing.

If you were planning to buy in mid-2026: Consider buying in late 2025 instead, even if it's a bit inconvenient. The price difference will likely exceed the value of waiting.

If you absolutely must have the newest specs: Wait until 2027. By then, supply will be normalizing, new models will be available, and you'll be buying with better information about what chips and specs are actually worth paying for.

If you're upgrading from very old hardware: Probably worth upgrading sooner rather than later. The jump in capability from 2020-era machines to 2025-era is substantial enough that it's worth doing before prices spike. If your current machine is working fine: This is the one scenario where waiting might make sense. If your 2022 laptop still handles your workload, there's no urgency. Waiting until 2027 lets you buy with better information, more supply, and more mature AI features that are actually useful (not just marketing).

For smartphone buyers:

Android flagship phone: Buy in late 2025 if you're considering a high-end model. These will likely maintain pricing through 2026, but supply might become constrained.

Budget Android phone: Expect price increases in H2 2026. If you're happy with a budget device, buying now saves

iPhone: Apple's pricing probably stays flat through 2026 due to margin flexibility. There's less urgency to buy early. iPhone has historically held prices stable even during component shortages.

The Long Game: What Changes in 2027 and Beyond?

Once the memory shortage resolves and new fabs come online, what actually changes?

First, memory prices normalize. They don't drop to 2024 levels immediately, but they stop increasing. This lets PC and phone prices stabilize.

Second, vendors might actually cut prices in 2027 to move volume and compete after the 2026 increases. This is classic post-shortage dynamics: prices rise fast during shortage, then fall over the following year as supply floods the market.

Third, the minimum RAM baseline might stay elevated permanently. If Copilot+ PC mandates drive 16GB as standard, and Windows 11 optimization improves over time, we might not see widespread return to 8GB machines. The "new normal" is higher specs.

Fourth, manufacturers will have learned valuable lessons about supply chain diversification. Don't expect another single-source crisis on this scale for memory. They'll build redundancy.

Long-term, the memory shortage of 2025-2027 becomes a historical footnote—like the 2018-2019 DRAM shortage. Prices normalized, supply recovered, and life went on. But in the moment, it feels significant because it costs real money for people trying to buy PCs.

When Upgrading Actually Pays: The Strategic Angle

If you're cost-conscious, here's the mathematical case for buying now or in late 2025:

Assuming a typical consumer replacing their PC every 4 years:

• **Buy now at
  $1,200**: Cost per year =$
  300
• **Buy at mid-2026 price (
  $1,380)**: Cost per year =$
  345
• **Buy at H2 2026 full increase (
  $1,440)**: Cost per year =$
  360

That

For businesses doing year-round refreshes, the impact is massive. A

Industry Predictions and Analyst Consensus

Multiple sources are warning about the same thing, which builds confidence in the forecast:

IDC researchers specifically warned of PC market contraction up to 8.9% in pessimistic scenarios. That's huge. A contracting market with rising prices suggests customers genuinely are deferring purchases and being price-resistant.

Major PC vendors (Lenovo, Dell, HP, Acer, Asus) publicly warned of 15-20% increases from H2 2026. These aren't analysts speculating—these are the people actually manufacturing PCs telling you what's coming.

Memory manufacturers have telegraphed supply issues persisting into 2027. SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron have all essentially acknowledged that data center demand is reshaping supply allocation.

When this many independent sources are saying the same thing, you pay attention.

FAQ

How long will the RAM shortage actually last?

Industry analysis suggests the shortage persists into 2027 and possibly beyond, depending on how quickly new manufacturing capacity comes online. New semiconductor fabs take 3-4 years to build and reach full production efficiency. Since expansion announcements are coming now, meaningful capacity relief won't arrive until late 2027 or 2028. The shortage is structural, not temporary—supply is genuinely constrained by manufacturing timelines, not by transient market disruptions.

Will all PC brands increase prices equally?

No. Companies with high profit margins like Apple have more cushion and might maintain prices while cutting specs slightly. Budget brands like ASUS and Acer operating on thin margins will need to pass cost increases directly to consumers, resulting in steeper price jumps. Enterprise brands like Dell might absorb some increases to maintain volume with business customers. The brands with the most pricing pressure are those competing in price-sensitive categories where margins are already thin.

Should I buy now or wait for new models?

If you can afford it, buy a current-generation model in late 2025 rather than waiting for next-generation models in 2026. New models will carry the price increases and memory shortage costs baked into them. Last-generation specs at current pricing beats next-generation specs at inflated pricing. The only exception is if you can wait until 2027 when supply normalizes—then you get newer specs at more normal pricing.

Are laptops, desktops, and tablets affected equally?

All form factors face memory cost pressures, but the impact differs. Laptops see the biggest price increases because they already operate on tight margins and require significant memory for performance. Desktop PCs might see more moderate increases because they're more customizable—you can build a solid system by using older but still-capable processors and GPUs. Tablets face fewer memory cost pressures because they use different memory architectures and operate on different supply chains.

What about gaming PCs and creative workstations?

Gaming and creative systems require 16-32GB of RAM standard, so they face direct memory cost impacts. A

Will smartphone prices increase as much as PC prices?

No. Smartphones use less total memory than PCs (8-12GB versus 16-32GB), so memory cost as a percentage of total price is smaller. iPhones likely see minimal price increases due to Apple's margin cushion. Budget Android phones will see 8-12% increases. The biggest disruption is feature cuts: phones might stay at current memory levels rather than upgrading to larger capacity, resulting in stagnant specs year-over-year.

Should I consider buying refurbished or used machines during the shortage?

Absolutely. The refurbished market becomes strategically attractive during shortage periods. Used machines from corporate refreshes, warranty returns, and previous-generation clearance offer 20-30% discounts from original pricing. With new pricing jumping 15-20%, buying refurbished last-generation hardware often beats buying new current-generation hardware. Quality and warranty coverage vary by seller, so verify you're buying from reputable sources like official manufacturer refurbishment programs.

How does this affect business PC purchases at scale?

Enterprises face substantial budget impacts. A company buying 500 machines at

Are there any workarounds to avoid the price increases?

Workarounds exist but come with trade-offs. Buying last-generation stock, choosing Chromebooks or tablets for specific use cases, extending hardware lifecycles with increased IT investment, or shifting to cloud-based development environments can reduce hardware spending. However, these often sacrifice performance, compatibility, or forward-looking capability. For most use cases, the straightforward approach—buying before prices spike—remains optimal.

What should I buy if I'm price-conscious right now?

Buy current-generation flagship models at current prices in late 2025, or consider high-spec previous-generation machines at clearance prices. Avoid budget models that will see proportionally larger price jumps. For PCs specifically, prioritize Windows 10 machines with strong specs over lower-spec Windows 11 machines—Windows 10 support ends October 2025, but machines remain functional, and you're buying established hardware at current pricing before increases hit.

The Bottom Line

PC and smartphone prices are rising in 2026, driven by structural memory shortages that persist into 2027. This isn't speculation or temporary market jitters—it's the result of AI data center demand pulling production capacity away from consumer electronics.

The practical impact is clear: if you're considering a PC or high-end smartphone upgrade, buying in late 2025 costs meaningfully less than waiting until mid-2026. The financial difference is substantial enough to warrant acting sooner rather than later.

For budget-conscious consumers, this creates an unusual window. Current pricing represents value because future pricing will be higher. It's the inverse of the usual tech equation where waiting for new models is usually rewarded with lower prices.

The shortage resolves eventually. New fab capacity comes online in 2027-2028. Prices normalize. But the window to buy at 2025 pricing closes in the next few months.

If you've been on the fence about upgrading, this is probably your sign that the fence is gone. Either buy now, or accept that you're paying 15-20% more for similar hardware six months from now.

Key Takeaways

• Memory shortages will persist through 2027 as AI data centers consume production capacity, making PC and smartphone prices surge 15-20%
• Budget Android makers face the steepest cost pressures; Apple and Samsung have margin cushion to absorb increases without immediate price hikes
• Windows 10 deprecation and Copilot+ PC requirements add
  $150-$
  300 to baseline PC costs on top of raw material increases
• The optimal buying window is late 2025 before H2 2026 price increases hit; waiting until mid-2026 costs meaningfully more for identical hardware
• New semiconductor fab capacity won't arrive until 2027-2028, making the shortage structural rather than temporary

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